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Ave Atque Vale, as they say in Harrogate. To this purposeless Parliament. It grinds to a halt in a welter of confusion as bills are dumped, hopefully ID Cards and Gambling. Members disappear into retirement homes, the Priory or constituencies. The Tories stagger round like a flightless bird, Labour panics, and Charles Kennedy can`t keep the smirk off his face.
A messy end to a messy parliament. Improvisation as a system of government. Tony foisted all sorts of things we didn’t want, from Iraq to University Fees, on us, the party staggered from one mess to another and the Great Forward March of Socialism turned into a milling, muttering Mob led by a Conservative General. So Farewell then. Her Majesty’s Fourteenth Parliament.
We’ve moved into prediction time in this undeclared election. There’s no evidence yet because going out on the street produces no clear reaction - which is worrying for Labour. No hostility but no enthusiasm either. The polls, too, are difficult to assess. They’ve all changed either ownership or methods. Some still interview, most telephone and a few are email based. This may be why the results are varying so much and the politicians are so jittery. As I am. Anyone would be as the ground disappears beneath our feet.
The safest prediction is that Labour will lose seats, the Liberals gain. My friends from my university days concur in predicting a majority of around seventy which on my Blair Brown scale strengthens Gordon. However the great unknown is turn out. Below 60% and rational predictions are up the spout. The Tories should then do better because their people are more likely to turn out, Labour worse so that the more we look as though we’re going to win the less likely we are to do so. Our people will think there’s no need to bother.
Which is why there’s been such a bitter start. The parties hope that violent confrontation will increase interest. It’ll just boost alienation.
The new membership of the House of Lords is now being recruited as compliant senior backbenchers agree to give up their seats in return for becoming Baron Blatherskyte of Betrayal in the next Honour’s List. I’ve not been sounded yet, except at a lower level, but every time my phone rings the humorists say “House of Lords calling”.
In fact this may be the last election at which it can be used. Tony wants a nominated Second Chamber. That would allow him to go on promoting Lord Loyalist and Baron Bribable to replace them with child geniuses from the Downing St. Nursery.
But the party will insist on a mainly elected Second Chamber, in which case not only will new recruits be far fewer, but a great chunk of the old ones will have to be purged. There’s less value in a job for three years than a meal ticket for life. I hope the new recruits have employed a good agent, like Lord Levy, to negotiate their tenure.
Jack Straw is so worried by the threat to his seat in Blackburn that he’s giving every appearance of going barmy.
He’s vigorously defending the government’s untenable position on the legality of an obviously illegal war when in fact he was the only man who emerged with any sense or honour in the initial discussions.
Even worse, he’s now opened a second front arguing that the Tories will de-stabilise the economy by threatening withdrawal from the EU. Obvious nonsense and directly contrary to the agreement with the Prime Minster not to row about the EU until the referendum. It’s also daft. No-one’s much interested in the EU at this election. Indeed the whole purpose of the referendum was to get it out of Tony’s hair this time round.
Give it up Jack. Leave talking Euro-nonsense to Dennis the Euro Menace. Send him to Europe to libel them there rather than his own party here.
It’s marvellous for a Labour candidate to be standing on a platform of economic growth and increasing wellbeing. I`m going to make the most of it like a well deserved Indian Summer.
Yet while basking in it I hope Gordon understands that it may not last. Keeping up the improvement means either more taxes to boost public spending, particularly on housing, the big growth stimulator, or a big drop in interest rates to get the pound down to stimulate production, close the trade deficit and boost exports. It’s far too high but we’ve spent so much time patting ourselves on the back about how brave and clever we’ve been to put the bankers in charge of our interest rates, it`s not going to be nice if it becomes a rod for own back as the economy slows.
That’s a thought for afterwards. Up to 5 May all real thought is banned. To go further down that road would probably be a Howard Flightable offence. |
